FIRE · Inflation

Inflation calculator: what your money will actually buy later

A crore sounds like a finish line until you notice it is a moving one. At 5% inflation, ₹1 crore twenty years out buys what about ₹37.7 lakh buys today. This calculates both directions — what an amount shrinks to, and what you would need instead to hold the same purchasing power — because retirement planning depends entirely on which of those two you were solving for.

years
Inflation assumption

RBI targets 4% CPI with a 2–6% tolerance band, retained to March 2031.

This calculator needs JavaScript. On paper: divide by (1 + inflation) raised to the number of years to get future purchasing power in today’s money, or multiply to get the amount needed to keep pace.

Will buy what this buys today

Needed to keep pace

Purchasing power halves in

Every assumption, stated

This applies a single constant inflation rate, which reality does not. Indian CPI has run from under 2% to over 7% within the last decade, and the basket that matters to you — if it is weighted towards healthcare, education or domestic help — has historically inflated faster than headline CPI. Treat the output as the shape of the problem, not a forecast.

The two questions people confuse

“What will ₹1 crore be worth in 20 years?” and “How much will I need in 20 years to have what ₹1 crore gives me now?” are different questions with different answers, and mixing them up is the most common error in retirement arithmetic. At 5% for 20 years, the first answer is about ₹37.7 lakh of today’s purchasing power. The second is about ₹2.65 crore. Both are correct; only one of them is what you were asking.

Retirement planning needs the second. Your corpus has to buy a future basket of goods, not a present one, so the target has to be inflated forward — or, equivalently, the whole calculation has to be run in today’s rupees with a real return, which is how the FIRE calculator handles it.

What inflation India actually runs

The Reserve Bank of India operates a flexible inflation targeting framework: 4% CPI, with a tolerance band of 2–6%. That framework was retained for the period from April 2026 to March 2031. Actual CPI has been well inside the band recently — April 2026 came in at 3.48% — but the decade before that included stretches above 6%.

Which is why the 4%, 5%, 6% and 7% options exist rather than a single default. Assuming 4% because it is the target is optimistic; assuming 7% because it felt that way a few years ago is pessimistic. The honest approach is to see how much the answer moves between them, and notice that the spread is enormous over 20 or 30 years.

Why your personal inflation is probably higher

Headline CPI is a weighted basket across the whole country, heavily influenced by food and fuel. The costs that dominate an urban professional household — healthcare, private school fees, domestic help, rent in a metro — have historically risen faster than the headline number. If your retirement plan is built on funding those specifically, the CPI figure understates the problem.

This matters most for healthcare, because it is the one large retirement cost with no state backstop in India and it inflates fastest of all. A corpus modelled at headline CPI and then asked to absorb medical inflation is a corpus that runs out earlier than the spreadsheet said. That gap is a large part of the argument for a 3–3.5% withdrawal rate rather than the American 4%.

Questions worth asking

What is India’s inflation target?

The Reserve Bank of India targets 4% consumer price inflation with a tolerance band of 2% to 6%, under its flexible inflation targeting framework. That framework was retained for April 2026 to March 2031. Actual CPI moves within and occasionally outside the band; April 2026 was 3.48%.

What inflation rate should I use for retirement planning in India?

Run the calculation at more than one rate rather than picking one. 5% to 6% is a defensible planning assumption for a general basket — above the RBI target, below the historical peaks. If your retirement spending is weighted towards healthcare or education, model those separately at a higher rate.

How long does it take for money to halve in value at 6% inflation?

About twelve years. At 5% it is roughly fourteen years, and at 7% roughly ten. The rule of 72 gives a quick approximation: divide 72 by the inflation rate. It is worth knowing because a 30-year retirement contains two or three of these halvings.

Does inflation affect my mutual fund returns?

It determines what those returns are actually worth. A portfolio returning 11% while inflation runs 5% is growing your purchasing power at roughly 5.7% a year, not 11%. Every long-horizon calculation should be run on that real rate, which is why the FIRE calculator derives it rather than letting you enter it directly.

Why does a 1% change in inflation move a retirement corpus so much?

Because it compounds over the whole horizon on both sides — it raises the target and lowers the real return simultaneously. Over 20 years, moving from 5% to 6% raises the amount needed by roughly 20%. Over 30 years the gap is larger still, which is why the assumption deserves to be visible rather than buried in a default.

The rest of the calculators

FIRE calculator Your corpus target and a projected date, with Lean, Coast and Fat variants. Retirement planner The detailed version: emergency fund first, the house you live in excluded, and a probability rather than a promise. Coast FIRE calculator The corpus at which you can stop investing and still finish on time. Life cycle fund calculator The equity and debt bands SEBI allows a target-date fund, and the exit load.

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Calculator and assumptions last reviewed 5 August 2026.

This is an explanation of arithmetic, not advice about your money. TLDR Money is not a registered investment adviser and earns nothing from any product mentioned here. Figures are illustrative; your own numbers, taxes and circumstances will differ.