93% lost.

₹1.8 lakh crore · SEBI, FY22–FY24

Investing · 7 min read

93% of F&O traders in India lost money. The 7% weren’t smarter.

Between FY22 and FY24, 1.13 crore Indians traded futures and options. 93% lost money. Total losses: ₹1.8 lakh crore.

The 7% who made money weren’t smarter, faster, or running a better strategy. They understood one thing the other 93% didn’t — and it has nothing to do with charts.

The word everyone uses and nobody defines

“Calculated risk” gets said constantly and explained rarely. Here’s the actual definition: calculated risk is when you’ve already decided what happens if you lose. That’s the whole thing. Everything else is theatre.

Think of it as jumping out of a plane. With a parachute, or without one. Both are risky. Both can end badly. But one of them, you’ve prepared for — you’ve got a plan if it goes wrong. That’s the only real difference between an investor and a gambler. Not the asset. Not the expected return. The plan for the downside.

Putting ₹2 lakh into a small-cap because a cousin said it would 5x is jumping without a parachute. Putting ₹10,000 a month into a Nifty 50 index fund, knowing full well the market has fallen 50%+ before and will again, is jumping with one. Same person, same money, two completely different risks.

Not taking risk is also a risk

Keeping everything in a savings account paying around 3%, while inflation runs near 6%, isn’t safety. It’s a loss you simply can’t see happening in real time.

There are really two kinds of risk running in parallel in your life. Career risk — where your salary comes from, the skill you’re building. And investment risk — what you do with that salary once it lands. Both compound. Both need five to ten years to actually show up. Most people obsess over the second and ignore the first, which is backwards: your career — the next promotion, the skill that makes you hard to replace — compounds faster than any SIP for the first decade.

Why 9 out of 10 lose

SEBI ran the numbers directly. Between FY22 and FY24, 1.13 crore individual traders touched futures and options. 93% lost money. The top 3.5% of losers — roughly 4 lakh people — lost an average of ₹28 lakh each.

SEBI’s F&O study, FY22–FY24
Retail derivatives outcomes in India, FY 2024 (SEBI study of individual F&O traders).
MetricFigure
Individual traders1.13 crore
Share that lost money93%
Aggregate losses₹1.8 lakh crore
Top 3.5% of losers, average loss each₹28 lakh
Source: SEBI study, September 2024

None of it comes down to “the market is rigged.” Three reasons recur. No emergency fund, so a trade going wrong forced an exit at the worst possible moment because rent was due. No asset allocation, so when Nifty fell roughly 38% in 46 trading days during March 2020, there was nothing else to balance it. And copying someone else’s trade — a YouTuber, a friend, a Telegram channel — whose EMIs, timeline and risk tolerance were never the same as theirs.

The parachute, actually

What it takes is boring. None of it will go viral.

  1. Six months of expenses, in cash. Not equity, not a liquid fund you’ll be tempted to dip into. On ₹40,000 a month, that’s ₹2.4 lakh sitting in a savings account, doing nothing exciting.
  2. A debt-to-income ratio under 33%. All EMIs combined — bike, phone, the no-cost fridge — under a third of in-hand. Past that, there’s no room for investment risk because life risk is already maxed out.
  3. Real asset allocation. Not 100% equity. In 2008, Nifty fell roughly 65% peak to trough — a pure-equity ₹10,000 portfolio would have dropped to about ₹3,500. The same portfolio with a meaningful gold allocation lost closer to 17%. Same crash, a fraction of the damage.
  4. Time. Nifty 50’s 10-year rolling CAGR has never gone negative — through 2008, the dot-com bust, COVID — averaging around 11%. That only holds if you actually stay in for ten years. Panic-sell in year two and you lock in the loss and miss the recovery entirely.

Not exciting. Wins anyway.

The three-question check

Open a banking app and answer these in under sixty seconds:

  1. Monthly expenses × 6 — is that sitting in cash right now?
  2. What % of in-hand goes to EMIs? Past 33%, fix that before adding investment risk — the same math shows up when EMI interest quietly outpaces SIP returns.
  3. How many different asset classes is your money actually spread across? If it’s one, that’s not investing. That’s a bet.

If those don’t come easily, the risk on the table isn’t calculated. It’s just a risk.

This is the exact picture TLDR is built to show. Connect your accounts and see your real monthly expense, your actual EMI ratio, and how your money is split across asset classes — before you put another rupee into anything.

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Individual circumstances vary considerably — income stability, existing obligations, and genuine risk tolerance all change what the right allocation is. This is an explanation of how the arithmetic and the history work, not investment advice.

Sources

FAQ

What is calculated risk in investing?

Calculated risk means you’ve already decided what happens if you lose — before you put the money in, not after. It’s the difference between jumping out of a plane with a parachute and without one: both are risky, but only one has a plan for what goes wrong. In investing terms, that plan is an emergency fund, a debt load you can actually service, and money spread across more than one asset class.

Why do 90%+ of F&O traders lose money in India?

SEBI’s own study found 93% of individual F&O traders lost money between FY22 and FY24, for three recurring reasons: no emergency fund (forcing an exit at the worst possible moment), no asset allocation (100% of their money in one bet), and copying someone else’s trade without that person’s income, EMIs, or timeline.

How much emergency fund should I keep before investing?

Six months of expenses, held in cash — not equity, not even a liquid fund you might be tempted to dip into. On ₹40,000 a month in expenses, that’s ₹2.4 lakh sitting in a savings account, doing nothing exciting and making every other financial decision safer.

Is keeping all my money in a savings account safe?

Not really. A savings account paying around 3% while inflation runs near 6% is a slow, invisible loss — you’re just not watching it happen the way you’d watch a stock chart. Not taking any investment risk is still a risk; the question worth asking isn’t whether to take risk, but which kind, and how much.

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